Let's Talk About Types of AI

“I’m sorry, Dave. I’m afraid I can’t do that.”

In 2023, we’ve seen an awful lot of change in terms of what the public thinks AI can do. Before the recent LLM (Large Language Model) revolution featuring superstar ChatGPT, most people working on AI predicted that AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) would take decades to arrive, if indeed it ever arrived at all.

Now, many—if not most—are placing it much, much sooner, possibly in this decade. Metaculus puts it almost exactly 10 years out, and you can see the trend line dropping dramatically a few times, as transformers were introduced, and then as ChatGPT rolled out: