There’s a lot of really exciting developing technology out there. You can create beautiful, complex images by saying words, and the process may as well be magic: it looks like you’re casting a spell, and then things just happen.
Waving your hand in order to make a virtual reality scene disappear from your worldview is right around the corner. A voice just like anyone ever recorded can now be generated to read you bedtime stories.
These are all really exciting things, but I tend to get the most excited about technology that allows people to live longer, or to live better, healthier lives. There have been a lot of these innovations, too: surgery done with robotic arms, vaccines that save millions of lives developed with AI, and untold promise in the field of drug synthesis.
It’s hard to tell how much of this is hype, and how much is real promise.
In situations like these, I really value the perspective of someone who is subject to all of this hype, but cuts through it for the most personal of reasons. That’s why I recommend reading
’s recent piece on Brain Tech to Be Optimistic About. Rudy has been living with brain cancer since 2018, having faced the news that he would probably be dead within a year or two, and all of the ensuing crap that goes along with that diagnosis and treatment.I want to expand a little on what Rudy wrote today.
Like Rudy, I’m no fan of false hope. I don’t have brain cancer (as far as I know), but I’ve seen this rug of rosy optimism yanked from under the feet of people I care about.
Rudy does a great job pointing out the flashy headlines around generative AI. The promise of these announcements seems more like a sales pitch than news, and I don’t think that’s much of a coincidence. After all, the idea is to “sell” this miracle cure (or whatever) to investors.
Where I want to add a little bit of nuance to this conversation is here: in previous decades, an advancement in one field represented just that—a new way to solve one particular problem in one particular application or industry. Now, advancements are symbiotically linked across fields. A breakthrough in one domain can fuel progress in others, creating a virtuous cycle of development that goes beyond individual sectors.
Even further, a virtuous cycle has developed. Newer, fancier chips are created by newer, fancier computer programs. These new fancy chips feed into fancier programs, and so on. This isn’t a new cycle, but it has sped up lately.
I wrote a bit more about this phenomenon here.
So, while I don’t love the hype, I am hesitant to throw out the baby with the bathwater. I think that massive innovation into the hype machine created by excited billionaires can actually (indirectly) lead us to better medicine, long term.
With that out of the way, I want to call attention to a few of Rudy’s observations.
Increasing number of potential treatments. One positive byproduct of all of the buzz around AI and technology in general is that people are beginning to believe that tech can accomplish just about anything. This means money and energy flowing into this space like never before, and there’s room for a lot of different approaches. One could work.
AI and brain scans. Ever since I read The Singularity Is Near about 20 years ago, I’ve been convinced that, eventually, we’ll have much less invasive tech for looking at how the brain works. It seems like we’re approaching the point where fewer biopsies (holes in skulls, slices in brains) will need to be done.
More readily available. Brain scanning (and scanning in general) is expensive and hard to access. MRIs cost around $1300 on average, and you certainly need an appointment with technicians. As technology becomes cheaper and better, expect the number of machines capable of things like MRIs to grow exponentially.
Early stage testing and monitoring. Gold nanoparticles, grain-sized devices, and other implantable devices hold a ton of promise for screening and preempting cancer, but also monitoring existing cases.
In sum, these are really exciting innovations, but you probably shouldn’t get too excited by hyped-up promises made by folks who may or may not understand the intricacies of the problems they’re claiming to solve.
Striking a balance between skepticism and optimism can be challenging. Binary outcomes tend to pull you in one direction at a time, but we need nuance.
It’s fair to say that not all that glitters is gold. However, let's not lose sight of the real, tangible progress being made. From advancements in medical technology that are extending lives, to AI innovations that could redefine how we understand the brain, the future holds incredible promise.
What's clear is that the accelerated pace of technological growth isn't just confined to one field; it's a synergistic explosion of possibilities across multiple sectors. So, while it’s great to remain cautious, it’s also important to stay optimistic. It is this optimism that will give fuel to all of these innovations.
I like the ficus in this tale but two things:
1) MRIs can vary widely in cost depending on type and body location. Newer, better machines and thinks like the brain cost way more (like $3500+) while a knee in an older machine costs less (like $350-500). Hopefully advances can bring the costs down while improving accuracy for all.
2) Tag someone for another take on the issue and get the dialogue going! Who shall dare to outdo us?!