The Pitfalls of Prophecy

Five Boldly Wrong Predictions About the Future

In our eagerness to envision the future, humanity has often tried its hand at predictions. Sometimes, these predictions have been eerily accurate, showing a profound understanding of the trajectory of technology and society. Most of the time, they’ve have been so far off the mark as to be laughable in retrospect.

Looking back at these missed predictions can be a source of humor and a humbling reminder of our limitations when it comes to forecasting the future. Before we laugh too arrogantly, we should remember that our own predictions today are likely to be every bit as bad as some of these. With that in mind, I have compiled for you a list of some of the most memorably mistaken predictions in history.

Five Computers Total in the World

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
— Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.

Of course this is where we need to begin this list. This prediction has become a touchstone in the history of mistaken technological forecasts. In the world …