Most of the past is unwritten as well being that history is only the past that is written about. There is much more past than there is “history” which seems written by those in power.
I recently read that there are more life forms in a spoonful of soil than the total number of humans who have ever lived. but they didn’t give the number! so now I know 😂
"We don’t need to go quietly in the night as our ancestors did if there are other alternatives, and since the people alive today have access to far more ideas than at any previous time in our history, we don’t necessarily have to follow the rules of the past."
Damn straight! I'm uploading myself into ChatGPT and making sure it's here to keep leaving inane comments on every post of yours long after I'm gone. Of course, your posts will be written by AndrewGPT by that time, so it'll all work out swimmingly!
When is the starting line for counting humans? Isn’t the transition from fish with walky fins through proto-humans to Homo sapiens largely under a dark shroud? It should be obvious that I lack expertise in this area.
It's more like a vaguely hidden shroud that we can see through, or at least with enough clarity to guess the number of humans with reasonable accuracy. In other words, nearly all humans have existed over the last 10,000 years no matter how you measure the beginning. I can recommend some other stuff I've written about evolution that might help clear some of this up if you're interested! I'm always hesitant to recommend my own stuff, but I really do try to cut through the noise and present complex thins as simply as possible.
Incredible piece about us Andrew. It's insane that the world's population has been increasing. While there is a death-birth balance, it seems births are more than deaths. What do you think It's contributing to higher population? Is this the reason why we have problems like global warming due to high population? Are marriages the cause of high population? Is poverty directly correlated to high population? Can the population slow down? Will we become extinct in billion years to come? Are humans the only highest population or there are other creatures in plenty and what's contributing to their variations?
All I know for sure is that we are almost at the top. The WHO (and plenty of others) are pretty sure we will hit a peak shy of 10 billion and actually contract from there.
You usually see these types of charts on log based axes, but I wanted this one to be linear so it would be just ridiculous. Turns out: reality is ridiculous!
Historian Niall Ferguson’s plug for his profession is that “The dead outnumber the living 14 to 1, and we ignore the accumulated experience of such a huge majority of mankind at our peril.” The biggest lesson from the 100 billion people who are no longer alive is that they tried everything we’re trying today. The details were different, but they tried to outwit entrenched competition. They swung from optimism to pessimism at the worst times. They battled unsuccessfully against reversion to the mean. They learned that popular things seem safe because so many people are involved, but they’re most dangerous because they’re most competitive. Same stuff that guides today, and will guide tomorrow. History is abused when specific events are used as a guide to the future. It’s way more useful as a benchmark for how people react to risk and incentives, which is pretty stable over time.
I think it cuts both ways. We should be inspired that we have the example of 100 billion to learn from, and we should realize that we ourselves make up a significant portion of the folks who have ever lived. To me, one in 14 is more than enough to think we might be exceptional, but at the same time, I want to preserve those lessons.
I do not know if we are any special than any of our past generations. It is more of every generation has a greater number of giants' shoulders to stand on.
I just read two books and I would highly recommend everyone to read it (if you have not) and it may change your perspective:
Yes, I agree about the giants/shoulders. That's why we're better positioned to do things differently than previous generations, but my main point wasn't that so few of us are alive today (as a percentage of humanity); it's actually the opposite - so many of us as a portion of all humans who have ever lived, is alive today. That just blows my mind even now to consider.
IF you looked at 300,000 years of human history and 0.0001% of all humans were alive right now, you'd say, "Been there, done that." But it's actually a very, very significant amount of the people who have ever lived - say 7 out of 100. 7 people in the mix of 100 can do quite significant things.
I do love big history. Which of the 2 books does a better job with the scope of all human history?
These two are about 120 or so pages of book, and they are coming from two different angles. "Why Don't We Learn from History?" comes mainly from a war angle but lessons can be applied to other areas too, and the other book is concise lessons from The Story of Civilization - 10 volumes & 11K pages books that Will Durant and Ariel Durant wrote. The authors discuss forces that have shaped history. The forces like natural (geography, biology), human behavior (character, morality), and human constructs (religion, economic systems, and government).
Well, that's a fascinating question. I would say demographic history is the field here. I think the main problem with these considerations is that we can only judge based on very partial statistics. In many places in the world no one has ever recorded births. Who knows? Maybe there were more people in the past than there are today. I'm probably talking nonsense, sorry Andrew. Nice hint though, thanks!
Michael, I think the physical remains are our best bet, and I think it's possible to tell that there weren't anything like hundreds of millions of humans alive "back in the day." The 100 billion-ish number might be off by a bit, but it's the right order of magnitude, I think. I love thinking this stuff through.
“Anyone who believes in unlimited growth on a physical finite planet is either mad or an economist.” David Attenborough
Lucky for us, the growth is already stopping. We're likely to peak this century.
That is the next crisis. We can no longer borrow forward.
Most of the past is unwritten as well being that history is only the past that is written about. There is much more past than there is “history” which seems written by those in power.
I recently read that there are more life forms in a spoonful of soil than the total number of humans who have ever lived. but they didn’t give the number! so now I know 😂
Oh yes, and that's true in your gut, too!
"We don’t need to go quietly in the night as our ancestors did if there are other alternatives, and since the people alive today have access to far more ideas than at any previous time in our history, we don’t necessarily have to follow the rules of the past."
Damn straight! I'm uploading myself into ChatGPT and making sure it's here to keep leaving inane comments on every post of yours long after I'm gone. Of course, your posts will be written by AndrewGPT by that time, so it'll all work out swimmingly!
That's a straight shooter with upper management potential written all over him.
When is the starting line for counting humans? Isn’t the transition from fish with walky fins through proto-humans to Homo sapiens largely under a dark shroud? It should be obvious that I lack expertise in this area.
It's more like a vaguely hidden shroud that we can see through, or at least with enough clarity to guess the number of humans with reasonable accuracy. In other words, nearly all humans have existed over the last 10,000 years no matter how you measure the beginning. I can recommend some other stuff I've written about evolution that might help clear some of this up if you're interested! I'm always hesitant to recommend my own stuff, but I really do try to cut through the noise and present complex thins as simply as possible.
Incredible piece about us Andrew. It's insane that the world's population has been increasing. While there is a death-birth balance, it seems births are more than deaths. What do you think It's contributing to higher population? Is this the reason why we have problems like global warming due to high population? Are marriages the cause of high population? Is poverty directly correlated to high population? Can the population slow down? Will we become extinct in billion years to come? Are humans the only highest population or there are other creatures in plenty and what's contributing to their variations?
All I know for sure is that we are almost at the top. The WHO (and plenty of others) are pretty sure we will hit a peak shy of 10 billion and actually contract from there.
That chart blew me away; that the growth was so exponential in recent centuries. I had to check the axis to make sure It wasn't skewed. Incredible.
You usually see these types of charts on log based axes, but I wanted this one to be linear so it would be just ridiculous. Turns out: reality is ridiculous!
Humbling for sure. I feel incredibly fortunate to be here in this time and place.
This is surely the best time (for most people) to be alive.
If we could cure greed, selfishness, and incompetence, everyone currently alive could be well fed and comfortable. Not happening.
Whenever I read about our ancestors, and it reminds me of the below quote (https://collabfund.com/blog/ideas-that-changed-my-life/):
Historian Niall Ferguson’s plug for his profession is that “The dead outnumber the living 14 to 1, and we ignore the accumulated experience of such a huge majority of mankind at our peril.” The biggest lesson from the 100 billion people who are no longer alive is that they tried everything we’re trying today. The details were different, but they tried to outwit entrenched competition. They swung from optimism to pessimism at the worst times. They battled unsuccessfully against reversion to the mean. They learned that popular things seem safe because so many people are involved, but they’re most dangerous because they’re most competitive. Same stuff that guides today, and will guide tomorrow. History is abused when specific events are used as a guide to the future. It’s way more useful as a benchmark for how people react to risk and incentives, which is pretty stable over time.
I think it cuts both ways. We should be inspired that we have the example of 100 billion to learn from, and we should realize that we ourselves make up a significant portion of the folks who have ever lived. To me, one in 14 is more than enough to think we might be exceptional, but at the same time, I want to preserve those lessons.
I do not know if we are any special than any of our past generations. It is more of every generation has a greater number of giants' shoulders to stand on.
I just read two books and I would highly recommend everyone to read it (if you have not) and it may change your perspective:
Why Don't We Learn from History?
by B. H. Liddell Hart
and
The Lessons of History
by Will Durant and Ariel Durant
Yes, I agree about the giants/shoulders. That's why we're better positioned to do things differently than previous generations, but my main point wasn't that so few of us are alive today (as a percentage of humanity); it's actually the opposite - so many of us as a portion of all humans who have ever lived, is alive today. That just blows my mind even now to consider.
IF you looked at 300,000 years of human history and 0.0001% of all humans were alive right now, you'd say, "Been there, done that." But it's actually a very, very significant amount of the people who have ever lived - say 7 out of 100. 7 people in the mix of 100 can do quite significant things.
I do love big history. Which of the 2 books does a better job with the scope of all human history?
These two are about 120 or so pages of book, and they are coming from two different angles. "Why Don't We Learn from History?" comes mainly from a war angle but lessons can be applied to other areas too, and the other book is concise lessons from The Story of Civilization - 10 volumes & 11K pages books that Will Durant and Ariel Durant wrote. The authors discuss forces that have shaped history. The forces like natural (geography, biology), human behavior (character, morality), and human constructs (religion, economic systems, and government).
Well, that's a fascinating question. I would say demographic history is the field here. I think the main problem with these considerations is that we can only judge based on very partial statistics. In many places in the world no one has ever recorded births. Who knows? Maybe there were more people in the past than there are today. I'm probably talking nonsense, sorry Andrew. Nice hint though, thanks!
Michael, I think the physical remains are our best bet, and I think it's possible to tell that there weren't anything like hundreds of millions of humans alive "back in the day." The 100 billion-ish number might be off by a bit, but it's the right order of magnitude, I think. I love thinking this stuff through.
Good point. Yes, it is indeed a very fascinating topic.