There’s a whole category of things to think about, where the answer to a puzzle or question is so nonintuitive that you’re almost frustrated when you hear what it is.
This is one of those frustrating problems where I instantly know what you're talking about when it's mentioned, but then I need a good moment to reread the explanation to absorb the logic...and it still makes only abstract sense. Then I forget all about it until the next time it's brought up, like today.
btw, Daniel sorry unrelated but it seems like a lot of work to find that other thread where I mentioned AI2027. I pondered it a bit more after talking to a bunch of 20 year olds and decided nah, no thank you I have enough Dystopia for today. Wrote a bit about it
I actually ended up reading the thing after your review, including both the slowdown and race endings. Very similar to the original “paperclip optimizer” story about dystopian path. Authors also admit that the part beyond early 2027 is speculative, so perhaps we shouldn't worry about Terminators just yet. We still have a good 1.5 years before it's time to PANIC!
Yknow the thing that’s missing is robots. Where are the robots that’ll actually do the evil things? My kid is just out of school as a mechanical engineer looking around for his first job and I’m egging him on to find the company building the Terminator and go work there.
I was born in 1980, and the show arguably was in its prime in the ‘70s, so no. But from what I know about it, it seems Monty had something special going on.
Absolutely. I think he was actually very sharp. Incidentally, Bob Barker also had a bit more going on under the surface, including raising a ton of awareness (and money) for animals. He would typically end his show by asking viewers to "please spay or neuter your pet." Very ahead of the curve.
The problem is, it's not as simple as changing your pick, it's a new choice between two doors, the one you initially chose and the one you didn't. Which brings it back to 50/50.
Try it one fresh time for me with a million doors. You start with that 1 in a million chance and pick door 1. Then, Monty opens 999,998 doors to show you goats behind them.
What if you had picked door 113,345 instead? Monty would open all of the doors except yours and one other door then, right?
It's a crazy brain bender, and I also thought this was true for quite some time.
Respectfully, it doesn't appear you understood my point.
Something can have a .1% chance of happening, but once it happens, it is 100% certain that it happened. It is no longer a variable. The past is no longer part of the equation whatsoever. In your original example, it starts at a 33% chance you will pick the correct door. After one is revealed and the question is revealed, the door that opened is not part of the equation at all. You are left with two doors, and the question of whether or not your door is the right one. It is 50/50.
I love your cute little goat peaking out from behind the door! Good explanation; still feeling a lil cognitive dissonance. Another scene that popped into my head when I was writing about Bezo’s doors was the Doors scene from Monsters, Inc., Doors are a metaphor for lots of stuff. Also, now I have to rewatch Happy Gilmore.
I watched this about a decade ago, and.. .well, Val Kilmer has never disappointed me, I think. The weirdest casting was in the film Heat, where he had long blond hair and was a gangster. Um, weird already.
Agree - Kilmer was just great in everything he did. His Iceman character has to be one of the great villains-turned-hero in cinema history - he certainly sticks in my mind! Gum-chewing and pencil rolling.
This is one of those frustrating problems where I instantly know what you're talking about when it's mentioned, but then I need a good moment to reread the explanation to absorb the logic...and it still makes only abstract sense. Then I forget all about it until the next time it's brought up, like today.
btw, Daniel sorry unrelated but it seems like a lot of work to find that other thread where I mentioned AI2027. I pondered it a bit more after talking to a bunch of 20 year olds and decided nah, no thank you I have enough Dystopia for today. Wrote a bit about it
I actually ended up reading the thing after your review, including both the slowdown and race endings. Very similar to the original “paperclip optimizer” story about dystopian path. Authors also admit that the part beyond early 2027 is speculative, so perhaps we shouldn't worry about Terminators just yet. We still have a good 1.5 years before it's time to PANIC!
Yknow the thing that’s missing is robots. Where are the robots that’ll actually do the evil things? My kid is just out of school as a mechanical engineer looking around for his first job and I’m egging him on to find the company building the Terminator and go work there.
Smart, get on their good side now. They'll never turn against their Creator, right? That hasn't happened in any movies that I know of.
Betting on my son for John Connor; kids never turn on their parents right? Oh yeah Oedipus oops
Damn, you guys already made all the dad jokes I wanted to make!
Monty Hall was born and raised in my hometown (Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada).
Small world! Did you ever get to watch reruns (or the originals when you were very young)? The show was really something to experience.
I was born in 1980, and the show arguably was in its prime in the ‘70s, so no. But from what I know about it, it seems Monty had something special going on.
Absolutely. I think he was actually very sharp. Incidentally, Bob Barker also had a bit more going on under the surface, including raising a ton of awareness (and money) for animals. He would typically end his show by asking viewers to "please spay or neuter your pet." Very ahead of the curve.
Bob, of course, I know about, since he kept on chugging with “The Price Is Right” well into the 1990s.
I came here hoping to find a link to this so here you go https://youtu.be/8QJiAK-s5a0
Haven't seen that in a couple decades!
The problem is, it's not as simple as changing your pick, it's a new choice between two doors, the one you initially chose and the one you didn't. Which brings it back to 50/50.
Try it one fresh time for me with a million doors. You start with that 1 in a million chance and pick door 1. Then, Monty opens 999,998 doors to show you goats behind them.
What if you had picked door 113,345 instead? Monty would open all of the doors except yours and one other door then, right?
It's a crazy brain bender, and I also thought this was true for quite some time.
Respectfully, it doesn't appear you understood my point.
Something can have a .1% chance of happening, but once it happens, it is 100% certain that it happened. It is no longer a variable. The past is no longer part of the equation whatsoever. In your original example, it starts at a 33% chance you will pick the correct door. After one is revealed and the question is revealed, the door that opened is not part of the equation at all. You are left with two doors, and the question of whether or not your door is the right one. It is 50/50.
This one hurt my brain. And reminded me of Battle of Wits with Vizzini!
The battle of brain-hurties has begun!
Not sure if she was the first to give the correct answer, but Marilyn vos Savant took a lot of flack about this: https://priceonomics.com/the-time-everyone-corrected-the-worlds-smartest/
Tom, this is a fantastic companion piece for anyone interested in a deeper dive, too! Nice share.
Folks: read the comments. There are golden nuggets here (and not simply diamonds in the doodypoop).
I love your cute little goat peaking out from behind the door! Good explanation; still feeling a lil cognitive dissonance. Another scene that popped into my head when I was writing about Bezo’s doors was the Doors scene from Monsters, Inc., Doors are a metaphor for lots of stuff. Also, now I have to rewatch Happy Gilmore.
I've recently been revisiting the band The Doors, to boot! Morrison got kinda bloated there at the end, you know?
This was a real bran bender, but I'm glad you asked that question in the first place.
I should watch Val playing him
I watched this about a decade ago, and.. .well, Val Kilmer has never disappointed me, I think. The weirdest casting was in the film Heat, where he had long blond hair and was a gangster. Um, weird already.
Yeah, but he was great in Heat. I think my favorite was early comedy Val in True Genius (I think that’s what it was called)
Agree - Kilmer was just great in everything he did. His Iceman character has to be one of the great villains-turned-hero in cinema history - he certainly sticks in my mind! Gum-chewing and pencil rolling.