Made It Come True

The story of Oedipus from Greek mythology is one of the most famous cautionary tales ever told. In order to prevent a prophecy from coming true, Oedipus was abandoned as a baby.

Unaware of his true parentage, he indeed ended up killing his father and marrying his mother, thus fulfilling the prophecy he sought to avoid.

Oedipus inadvertently made it come true. Today, I want to look at a few examples from history where things happen in spite of (or because of) a very deliberate attempt to avoid them.

For our first example, we need to travel back in time.

Just after the conclusion of World War I, Europe was reeling from the devastation.

I’ve written quite a bit about John Maynard Keynes, who was widely considered one of the great economic thinkers of the day. If you indulge me here, I’ll write some more about him during this pivotal moment.

Keynes was a key participant in the discussions that led up to the Treaty of Versailles, but unlike the rest of the committee he was on, he saw that shortsighted economic interests of individual nations were the only consideration leaders were willing to entertain.

This was a serious problem, since the entire point of the Treaty was to prevent Germany from becoming powerful enough to threaten the rest of Europe. World leaders, Keynes felt, should be made of sterner stuff than to simply want to hold onto power, especially in a democratic society. But that’s exactly what the Treaty of Versailles delivered: a demand for reparations to rebuild Europe that was so absurd as to be unsustainable.

Keynes resigned from the committee he was on, and set to work writing The Economic Consequences of the Peace, one of the most influential economic tracts ever written.

He made a few predictions in his piece:

• that the reparations would cripple Germany’s economy

• that this would lead to hyperinflation

• all this would sow the seeds of another great conflict, destabilizing Europe for generations

If you know a little interwar history, you already know Keynes got all of this right. Vengeance and misguided policies ended up contributing to the rise of fascism in Europe, ultimately culminating in Hitler attaining supreme power in Germany, and leading to a much more dangerous Germany than existed in World War I.

You can read a bit more about this time in this piece I wrote a while back:

Like Oedipus, European leaders had made their worst fears come true. And, this wasn’t the first notable time this happened in Europe.

Back during the days of the Roman Republic, things were a little… shaky. This was no bastion of stable government; instead, Roman citizens hid from the violence in the streets during some election years. They watched as the Senate was gradually hollowed out and replaced with men who valued money and comfort far more highly than they valued public service.

There were civil wars, where blood was shed by Romans, against Romans. There were revolts and uprisings.

There was, to sum things up, an urgent need to protect the Republic from itself. Naturally, bold men stepped up and acted. Naturally, they made it come true: Julius Caesar’s murder led directly to five centuries of Empire. A republic where one person’s power was matched only by the Senate gave way to totalitarian rule by one.

You can read my piece about the Roman Republic here if you’re interested:

Perhaps it’s a bit of an oversimplification to suggest that Julius Caesar’s murder alone made it come true, but hopefully it’s clear by now that sometimes our best efforts end up making things worse.

Can you think of any other good examples from history where this happened? What are some ways we can avoid making something terrible come true? Let’s think a little today.