It’s the mid-20th century, and you’re living in England. You open up your Times newspaper to catch up on the news of the world, and you see a full-page advertisement for a contest of sorts. There are six pretty faces in six little squares, and at first glance, you reckon the contest is to determine who’s the most beautiful among them. Instead, the goal is to pick the face that the most people will choose as the most beautiful.
I would pick the face that I think most of the masses would most likely pick, their numbers will always make up for the smarter ones which will be fewer so it would hardly matter. After all, default thinking always takes the route of least effort and for many, this is true.
And I agree humans are much harder to predict, hardly anyone could guess who becomes cult leaders and the like, whose going to make it big in business, etc.
This piece reminded me of an asylumee I knew through a colleague who complained that the reason he lost at a poker game was that the opponent was too dumb to choose the right card so it made him loose his momentum of predictive thought as to the outcome of their game. This guy has high IQ but is socially inept and may even be slightly sociopathic.
Ika, that sounds like an amazing example of overthinking - the poker player, I mean! Neat reference/story, too. I'm really glad this one resonated with you.
It did. Great article! Also that poker player overplans his grocery shopping too simply because he doesn't want anyone finding out his burger composition
Haha. This has always been such a funny concept to me. What other people think is none of my business unless they choose to share it with me. I was recently talking with a girl friend of mine who was listing off all the reasons she couldn't do what she wanted because what if people mischaracterized or misrepresented her and she was trying to predict what they would think so she could then do that instead. I just thought to myself, how exhusting (sp). And maybe I've been in therapy so long or the fact that I'm not Atypical, so it doesn't ever cross my mind to put too much stock into predicting the thoughts or actions of others. Just pick the one you like, ya know. When we get caught up in fortune telling/trying to control outcomes, I find there is a high provability for error because we all have different experiences that shape how and why we absorb the information we have like we might. Perception is an interesting thing and being flexible enough to see others peoples perspectives isn't as common as one might like to think. If I was trying to invest- instead of thinking about what others are doing- I just think, does this solve a problem that is in high demand? if I am like man- people are going to want that or need that- I invest in it and then ignore it so I dont get pulled into the guessing game of what others are doing. I'm not sure if this is making sense, but I find I am happier when I am assuming others are doing their best and I am just living in ways that feel good to me and sharing that goodness with others honestly, ya know?
Yes! One other takeaway is that you don't have to play this complicated game if you don't want to (although anticipating the desires of others is very important in certain arenas).
This is true! Instead of anticipating, I just like to ask others what they desire and leave the guessing or room for error out of it, but I also understand that isnt always an option especially if the game is more deceptive by nature, like investing for example, tends to be. I like to play things transparently, which can come with a whole lot of other problems, but leaves me feeling okay with myself and at the end of the day, I just want to be someone that I like. :)
Running a business is really tough. You can be transparent with a lot of things, but not with all things (proprietary stuff, confidential info someone asked to keep secret, and a bunch more), and I hate when I can't just tell people the whole story... but it does get complicated.
Those are other very good points, and putting things into that context does matter a whole lot, Andrew. Nuance is everywhere indeed!
A great example, sometimes at the gym, I'll overhear teammates struggling with a certain move, or taking something personally (that probably isn't), and most of us share these challenges with our coaches or others teammates and I often reflect on or get curious about the other side of that. Because as our coaches, you guys get to see a better more accurate picture because you get to see where the students are coming from both sides- but the student only has their point a view, and so many blind spots! And there is so much nuance to be had there as well! lol
Well said. It is challenging and hurtful (if I'm honest) for people to assume they have the whole picture, therefore my behavior is somehow dumb or evil in intent. I want to tell people how much more there is to the picture, but sometimes you just can't do that.
That sounds hard, just remember it’s their own blind spots and lack of reflection that keeps them from forming healthier conclusions. At the end of the day, you just have to keep doing the next right thing knowing all you do with being privy to the whole pictures others just aren’t meant to see. Sorry it hurts sometimes, I’m sure that not easy to carry.
I know this is not the point at all, but I pick goat #3 - I mean, check out those horns!
But I kind of feel like I don't quite follow the logic. If I believe myself to be a pretty good judge of what the average person might consider the most beautiful, shouldn't I just pick that? By default, everyone will gravitate towards whatever that "average" is, knowing that the only way to win is to pick what the majority of people picked. So the third loop of going for the "less conventionally" pretty faces doesn't really make sense to me. (Now, I could be a very poor judge of what the masses might think is a pretty face, but that's an issue unrelated to my rational decision-making process here.)
I think you've hit on an important point: at some place, it becomes more important to stop thinking so much. It's very easy to get lost in 2nd, 3rd, and even higher order effects if you're thinking about human behavior.
Even in physics, you can only think so many variables ahead, because there's just so much uncertainty, and this is doubly so with human psychology.
To your specific point, yes, this would be a good approach if you were truly a good judge of who the public would pick as "most conventionally pretty."
Just keep in mind that this is a group of investors with skin in the game. All of these folks are trying to outsmart one another, and they all know this is happening. If I know that everyone else is playing this game, am I still gonna pick the one I think is "average pretty"? Maybe so, but I can see reasons I might question this conclusion and reconsider it.
Perhaps the example would work better with a different schematic for odds, but my brain is currently pushing back on good examples of how this would work (I'm confident they exist, but equally confident that I need more coffee).
Right, but this group of investors doesn't have the stated goal of straying from the crowd - you only get to "win" by matching the herd. So it stands to reason that, being a self-interested player, I will always pick the face I personally believe will be picked by the majority.
The calculus seems pretty simple: If I go for the "most likely to be voted" face, I am picking the one most likely outcome. (Again, to the extend that I feel I'm good at judging what the crowd will pick.) If I am to speculate on what others might choose to be a "less conventional" face, I suddenly have 5 alternative options to choose from, so my chance of being in the majority seems far lower if I start being creative here.
This is different from e.g. a game of Dixit, where my aim is to give a hint that's probable enough that at least ONE other person picks it but not so obvious that EVERYONE votes for it.
I dunno, maybe I'm overthinking your post about overthinking.
I mean, you're definitely overthinking, but you're also not wrong! I need to be more clear with what the terms of the arrangement are next time. This is about the moral of the story: both that there's a second (and third, and fourth) order of thinking at play in markets, and that 2nd order thinking is very, very hard. I give myself a C- for my thesis, but maybe a B+ for my purdy images and writing.
That's completely incidental. You win the challenge because the majority (me+you, in this case) went for the same face. Now where are my goat NFTs, Andrew?
Princess Bride immediately came to mind right out of the gate so I'm glad you worked that in.
It was way too obvious (and way too great of a film) not to use the reference!
What an interesting delve into a topic.
I would pick the face that I think most of the masses would most likely pick, their numbers will always make up for the smarter ones which will be fewer so it would hardly matter. After all, default thinking always takes the route of least effort and for many, this is true.
And I agree humans are much harder to predict, hardly anyone could guess who becomes cult leaders and the like, whose going to make it big in business, etc.
This piece reminded me of an asylumee I knew through a colleague who complained that the reason he lost at a poker game was that the opponent was too dumb to choose the right card so it made him loose his momentum of predictive thought as to the outcome of their game. This guy has high IQ but is socially inept and may even be slightly sociopathic.
Great article Andrew.
Ika, that sounds like an amazing example of overthinking - the poker player, I mean! Neat reference/story, too. I'm really glad this one resonated with you.
It did. Great article! Also that poker player overplans his grocery shopping too simply because he doesn't want anyone finding out his burger composition
I'm afraid I know a few people like this.
Good heavens, I didn't think it was widespread
Haha. This has always been such a funny concept to me. What other people think is none of my business unless they choose to share it with me. I was recently talking with a girl friend of mine who was listing off all the reasons she couldn't do what she wanted because what if people mischaracterized or misrepresented her and she was trying to predict what they would think so she could then do that instead. I just thought to myself, how exhusting (sp). And maybe I've been in therapy so long or the fact that I'm not Atypical, so it doesn't ever cross my mind to put too much stock into predicting the thoughts or actions of others. Just pick the one you like, ya know. When we get caught up in fortune telling/trying to control outcomes, I find there is a high provability for error because we all have different experiences that shape how and why we absorb the information we have like we might. Perception is an interesting thing and being flexible enough to see others peoples perspectives isn't as common as one might like to think. If I was trying to invest- instead of thinking about what others are doing- I just think, does this solve a problem that is in high demand? if I am like man- people are going to want that or need that- I invest in it and then ignore it so I dont get pulled into the guessing game of what others are doing. I'm not sure if this is making sense, but I find I am happier when I am assuming others are doing their best and I am just living in ways that feel good to me and sharing that goodness with others honestly, ya know?
Yes! One other takeaway is that you don't have to play this complicated game if you don't want to (although anticipating the desires of others is very important in certain arenas).
This is true! Instead of anticipating, I just like to ask others what they desire and leave the guessing or room for error out of it, but I also understand that isnt always an option especially if the game is more deceptive by nature, like investing for example, tends to be. I like to play things transparently, which can come with a whole lot of other problems, but leaves me feeling okay with myself and at the end of the day, I just want to be someone that I like. :)
Running a business is really tough. You can be transparent with a lot of things, but not with all things (proprietary stuff, confidential info someone asked to keep secret, and a bunch more), and I hate when I can't just tell people the whole story... but it does get complicated.
Nuance, you are everywhere!
Those are other very good points, and putting things into that context does matter a whole lot, Andrew. Nuance is everywhere indeed!
A great example, sometimes at the gym, I'll overhear teammates struggling with a certain move, or taking something personally (that probably isn't), and most of us share these challenges with our coaches or others teammates and I often reflect on or get curious about the other side of that. Because as our coaches, you guys get to see a better more accurate picture because you get to see where the students are coming from both sides- but the student only has their point a view, and so many blind spots! And there is so much nuance to be had there as well! lol
Well said. It is challenging and hurtful (if I'm honest) for people to assume they have the whole picture, therefore my behavior is somehow dumb or evil in intent. I want to tell people how much more there is to the picture, but sometimes you just can't do that.
That sounds hard, just remember it’s their own blind spots and lack of reflection that keeps them from forming healthier conclusions. At the end of the day, you just have to keep doing the next right thing knowing all you do with being privy to the whole pictures others just aren’t meant to see. Sorry it hurts sometimes, I’m sure that not easy to carry.
and for the record, I like goat 3.
I know this is not the point at all, but I pick goat #3 - I mean, check out those horns!
But I kind of feel like I don't quite follow the logic. If I believe myself to be a pretty good judge of what the average person might consider the most beautiful, shouldn't I just pick that? By default, everyone will gravitate towards whatever that "average" is, knowing that the only way to win is to pick what the majority of people picked. So the third loop of going for the "less conventionally" pretty faces doesn't really make sense to me. (Now, I could be a very poor judge of what the masses might think is a pretty face, but that's an issue unrelated to my rational decision-making process here.)
I think you've hit on an important point: at some place, it becomes more important to stop thinking so much. It's very easy to get lost in 2nd, 3rd, and even higher order effects if you're thinking about human behavior.
Even in physics, you can only think so many variables ahead, because there's just so much uncertainty, and this is doubly so with human psychology.
To your specific point, yes, this would be a good approach if you were truly a good judge of who the public would pick as "most conventionally pretty."
Just keep in mind that this is a group of investors with skin in the game. All of these folks are trying to outsmart one another, and they all know this is happening. If I know that everyone else is playing this game, am I still gonna pick the one I think is "average pretty"? Maybe so, but I can see reasons I might question this conclusion and reconsider it.
Perhaps the example would work better with a different schematic for odds, but my brain is currently pushing back on good examples of how this would work (I'm confident they exist, but equally confident that I need more coffee).
Right, but this group of investors doesn't have the stated goal of straying from the crowd - you only get to "win" by matching the herd. So it stands to reason that, being a self-interested player, I will always pick the face I personally believe will be picked by the majority.
The calculus seems pretty simple: If I go for the "most likely to be voted" face, I am picking the one most likely outcome. (Again, to the extend that I feel I'm good at judging what the crowd will pick.) If I am to speculate on what others might choose to be a "less conventional" face, I suddenly have 5 alternative options to choose from, so my chance of being in the majority seems far lower if I start being creative here.
This is different from e.g. a game of Dixit, where my aim is to give a hint that's probable enough that at least ONE other person picks it but not so obvious that EVERYONE votes for it.
I dunno, maybe I'm overthinking your post about overthinking.
I mean, you're definitely overthinking, but you're also not wrong! I need to be more clear with what the terms of the arrangement are next time. This is about the moral of the story: both that there's a second (and third, and fourth) order of thinking at play in markets, and that 2nd order thinking is very, very hard. I give myself a C- for my thesis, but maybe a B+ for my purdy images and writing.
The one uncontroversial thing that we can all easily agree on here is that Goat #3 is hot as hell!
omg me too! I also like goat 3 :)
Looks like you and I win the hypthetical prize in Andrew's challenge by picking the same face. Andrew, you're welcome to pay me in NFTs of goats.
I picked number 3 because its the one i think is prettiest, not because I thought others would like her. I just went with my personal preference.
That's completely incidental. You win the challenge because the majority (me+you, in this case) went for the same face. Now where are my goat NFTs, Andrew?
Sorry, I'm unavailable to help with that - I'm still learning!
However, I can talk you through how to create your own NFT from the goat image in the article. Would you like for me to do that?
#GOATGPT
You're too late, I already took several pictures of the goat with my phone camera, so your NFTs are mine now. Checkmate!
hahah