Who says all the innovation is going to be the kind of thing normally associated with technology, anyway? I keep unironically thinking about the question of what a human even is to begin with because I almost see all this emphasis on technological change as being an attempt to balance against a change coming from nature. I think the change coming from nature is a good thing and the proposed technological attempts to cancel it are a bad thing. They are always always always paired with "humanity this, humanity that." Reminds me of an article I read here about a Justice League show that said, "bad guys save the world, good guys save people."
I'm not remotely against technology, though. I just think technology can be used for different ends and people are trying to use it to prevent natural growth like a lich trying to fill a coffer with souls and maintain a state of undeath. That's not the only use for fantasy technology/magic (which is literally just technology people don't understand the mechanics behind in lots of older works of fiction.) Forget phase changes, what about punctuated equilibrium? That's not so much of a positivist metaphor but that's where my mind is. I find it difficult to forget that the environmental conditions for humanity have never been like they are now, either, and that's in multiple ways. The obvious one is climate change, but the other ones are more interesting and relevant in my opinion.
Just technology isn't limited to mechanical and chemical things even if you are only looking at technology, but I think the changes to the natural environment going on are more interesting than the technology being made. This is despite and perhaps also because I'm trying to work on some technology myself. Next-word prediction algorithms are not very interesting and it's also completely unsurprising when they melt down when you yourself are slowly trying to make an AI that uses generative grammar models, for instance, and then do some measurements based on biophysics hypotheses to see how well it potentially lines up with human cognition and hypothetical other types of cognition. I guess I see technology as more of a byproduct than a driver of other changes. If that byproduct isn't there you're badly off but the real origin of progress is internal and mental in my view. Basically what I said about computing, AI is a buzzword because all computing is about intelligence, that's what distinguishes a computer from a machine like an engine whose purpose is locomotion for example.
"Who says all the innovation is going to be the kind of thing normally associated with technology, anyway?"
Not me! At least, I certainly hope I don't leave that impression.
I think technology facilitates societal change, and sometimes it can create unintended rapid change, sort of creating its own vicious or virtuous cycle. It's certainly a double-edged sword, not a panacea, and we need to keep that in mind as we go forward.... very carefully.
We're certainly at a very, very big inflection point today.
This stuff is fascinating to think about. We're probably the first people who get to witness (maybe several) truly massive paradigm shifts in "real time" within our lifetimes. I think the Internet was one such shift that divides my life clearly into "before" and "after."
But that¨s likely nothing compared to what's coming in the next few decades.
One or more of these unless we hit a wall that we cannot climb, especially in technology areas:
AI, Quantum Computing, Synthetic Biology, climate change technologies, space exploration and exploitation for resources, government policies, robotics/automation, advancement in material science, wars (or current cold war with China and a new cold war), a lack of population growth and it's impact on society, how fast developing countries grows especially in middle-east and Africa, and the effect of most of the above on our work or lack of work.
I feel as though progress is always being made but perhaps in areas we all don’t always see. Like, you couldn’t possibly be an expert in all fields at the same time. Technology is one piece of a grand puzzle. It is a tool that is often under and simultaneously over-utilized and relied on. Some rely too heavily and it causes stunting, others under utilize causing them to fall behind in their respective industries or lifestyles. Regardless, I don’t think it moves backwards as some like to bitterly say when “progress” isn’t keeping up with their expectation. Just my two cents.
I think that's a good take, and I feel very similarly. It certainly depends on what you mean by "progress", but what I have seen over the last century is greater human rights and a higher standard of living for the vast majority of the world. I value those things very, very highly, and while "lost days of yore" are often romanticized, I really don't think the trade off (to go back in time and live that way) would be remotely worth it for most humans alive today.
Ray Kurzweil says about the same thing in his Singularity book. That technology is exponentially accelerating. The problem with acceleration is the change that it necessitates. We assume that things stay the same while tech improves, which is relatively impossible and certainly improbable. People and relationships are rarely thought of when speaking about tech, but that is how we on the ground will feel the change. For example, the internet brought many things, but our lives really felt the change once social media hit. We changed how we interacted forever, and divided, mostly as a result. The most likely outcome, in my opinion, is one of three things are most likely to happen if our current technological trajectory holds. 1. like you said, the pace of technology continues, which in turn will necessitate larger and larger sanctitions, global in scope, we will soon see the advent of governmental digital ID's, and encroaching control using AI trackers. Essentially the tech will be hijacked both as an excuse as well as to support control. 2. Devastating economic and population collapse on all fronts stagnates growth in all sectors, and all our energy is rerouted to growing our population and economy. 3. Both control and collapse strike simultaneously along with possible war, and then we're looking at a post apocalypse movie scenario, and who knows what role tech, or anything else will play.
This is all theory, who knows? But it was a fun exercise. Thanks guys, it was a great article!
Thanks, Andrew! I read The Singularity is Near about 20 years ago, and it had a profound impact on how I've seen the world ever since. Thanks for the additional food for thought!
This was a fun thought experiment and it was great to work with you on this! Thanks Andrew!
Thanks, Scoot! You made this fun.
Who says all the innovation is going to be the kind of thing normally associated with technology, anyway? I keep unironically thinking about the question of what a human even is to begin with because I almost see all this emphasis on technological change as being an attempt to balance against a change coming from nature. I think the change coming from nature is a good thing and the proposed technological attempts to cancel it are a bad thing. They are always always always paired with "humanity this, humanity that." Reminds me of an article I read here about a Justice League show that said, "bad guys save the world, good guys save people."
I'm not remotely against technology, though. I just think technology can be used for different ends and people are trying to use it to prevent natural growth like a lich trying to fill a coffer with souls and maintain a state of undeath. That's not the only use for fantasy technology/magic (which is literally just technology people don't understand the mechanics behind in lots of older works of fiction.) Forget phase changes, what about punctuated equilibrium? That's not so much of a positivist metaphor but that's where my mind is. I find it difficult to forget that the environmental conditions for humanity have never been like they are now, either, and that's in multiple ways. The obvious one is climate change, but the other ones are more interesting and relevant in my opinion.
Just technology isn't limited to mechanical and chemical things even if you are only looking at technology, but I think the changes to the natural environment going on are more interesting than the technology being made. This is despite and perhaps also because I'm trying to work on some technology myself. Next-word prediction algorithms are not very interesting and it's also completely unsurprising when they melt down when you yourself are slowly trying to make an AI that uses generative grammar models, for instance, and then do some measurements based on biophysics hypotheses to see how well it potentially lines up with human cognition and hypothetical other types of cognition. I guess I see technology as more of a byproduct than a driver of other changes. If that byproduct isn't there you're badly off but the real origin of progress is internal and mental in my view. Basically what I said about computing, AI is a buzzword because all computing is about intelligence, that's what distinguishes a computer from a machine like an engine whose purpose is locomotion for example.
"Who says all the innovation is going to be the kind of thing normally associated with technology, anyway?"
Not me! At least, I certainly hope I don't leave that impression.
I think technology facilitates societal change, and sometimes it can create unintended rapid change, sort of creating its own vicious or virtuous cycle. It's certainly a double-edged sword, not a panacea, and we need to keep that in mind as we go forward.... very carefully.
We're certainly at a very, very big inflection point today.
This stuff is fascinating to think about. We're probably the first people who get to witness (maybe several) truly massive paradigm shifts in "real time" within our lifetimes. I think the Internet was one such shift that divides my life clearly into "before" and "after."
But that¨s likely nothing compared to what's coming in the next few decades.
I think that's true, and that's hard to comprehend.
One or more of these unless we hit a wall that we cannot climb, especially in technology areas:
AI, Quantum Computing, Synthetic Biology, climate change technologies, space exploration and exploitation for resources, government policies, robotics/automation, advancement in material science, wars (or current cold war with China and a new cold war), a lack of population growth and it's impact on society, how fast developing countries grows especially in middle-east and Africa, and the effect of most of the above on our work or lack of work.
I feel as though progress is always being made but perhaps in areas we all don’t always see. Like, you couldn’t possibly be an expert in all fields at the same time. Technology is one piece of a grand puzzle. It is a tool that is often under and simultaneously over-utilized and relied on. Some rely too heavily and it causes stunting, others under utilize causing them to fall behind in their respective industries or lifestyles. Regardless, I don’t think it moves backwards as some like to bitterly say when “progress” isn’t keeping up with their expectation. Just my two cents.
I think that's a good take, and I feel very similarly. It certainly depends on what you mean by "progress", but what I have seen over the last century is greater human rights and a higher standard of living for the vast majority of the world. I value those things very, very highly, and while "lost days of yore" are often romanticized, I really don't think the trade off (to go back in time and live that way) would be remotely worth it for most humans alive today.
Ray Kurzweil says about the same thing in his Singularity book. That technology is exponentially accelerating. The problem with acceleration is the change that it necessitates. We assume that things stay the same while tech improves, which is relatively impossible and certainly improbable. People and relationships are rarely thought of when speaking about tech, but that is how we on the ground will feel the change. For example, the internet brought many things, but our lives really felt the change once social media hit. We changed how we interacted forever, and divided, mostly as a result. The most likely outcome, in my opinion, is one of three things are most likely to happen if our current technological trajectory holds. 1. like you said, the pace of technology continues, which in turn will necessitate larger and larger sanctitions, global in scope, we will soon see the advent of governmental digital ID's, and encroaching control using AI trackers. Essentially the tech will be hijacked both as an excuse as well as to support control. 2. Devastating economic and population collapse on all fronts stagnates growth in all sectors, and all our energy is rerouted to growing our population and economy. 3. Both control and collapse strike simultaneously along with possible war, and then we're looking at a post apocalypse movie scenario, and who knows what role tech, or anything else will play.
This is all theory, who knows? But it was a fun exercise. Thanks guys, it was a great article!
Thanks, Andrew! I read The Singularity is Near about 20 years ago, and it had a profound impact on how I've seen the world ever since. Thanks for the additional food for thought!