23 Comments
Nov 17Liked by Andrew Smith

I am probably confusing those four rules with another four rule mantra. I heard about four processes involving our movement from newbie to master, but not sure if I remember the words correctly:

Subconscious incompetence - we don’t think about the action we can’t do - unknown unknown

Conscious incompetence -we think about the action but we can’t do it - known unknown

conscious competence - we have to think about the action in order to do it - known known

Subconscious competence - we don’t think about the action in order to do it - unknown known

You mentioned it in your body knowing how to react to stimulus before you’ve thought about what to do.

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I've heard about this way of thinking about learning and mastery, and I like it. I'm not sure if it comes from the same place as the Rumsfeld matrix, but it's a great framework for students!

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Nov 19Liked by Andrew Smith

Michael Woudenberg also cited the four stage Unconscious Incompetence for further clarification. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/brain-stretch-michael-woudenberg-ro5lc

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Excellent framework.

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This has always seemed like gobbledegook word salad but now that you explain it, the unknown unknows are what get us every time. If only we knew, then truth could be just as strange as fiction.

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I unknow what you mean!

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the full quote nails it: Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn’t.

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The nature of reality certainly seems to fall into this category, at least insofar as we understand it at the moment. The imagination of the entire universe > one person's imagination, even a great sci-fi writer!

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Nov 17·edited Nov 17Liked by Andrew Smith

But what if I know that there are some unknowns that I don't know? Does it make them known unknowns or does it only make the knowing of the unknowns known? Do you know? I dunno.

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You know, you raise a good point here.

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Nov 17Liked by Andrew Smith

That's good to know!

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author

No, Daniel!

No-ing is half the battle.

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Nov 17Liked by Andrew Smith

I no knothing!

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"I am no man!"

-some dude, probably

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Timely. My article about Elon Musk's Mars colony comes out tonight and I use that same framework for analyzing what might go wrong.

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I bet you've already thought about a bunch of unknown unknowns there. I'm not sure if those would have more potential to derail a mission like that than the known unknowns, but I bet both of those are full of pitfalls. Sounds like a good thought experiment!

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I ran across this book "Fordlandia" about Henry Ford's attempt to build a village in the Amazon to grow rubber, and wrote about it last week:

https://albertcory50.substack.com/p/sorry-elon-henry-ford-started-a-colony

That bit of history exposes a lot of known unknowns which I bet no one is thinking about.

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Great minds something something:

https://goatfury.substack.com/p/fordlandia

Great story, and yes, this is an excellent analog for what could go wrong. Nice.

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Wow. You already did it. Did you read the book I mentioned?

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Not yet, but I just now noticed that it's free with my membership on Audible! I know the story pretty well, but I think I will enjoy doing a deeper dive like this. Thanks!!

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Nov 17Liked by Andrew Smith

Some faith traditions might say that almost everything is an “unknown known”. For example, Ecclesiastes 1:9 says, “That which has been is what will be, That which is done is what will be done, And there is nothing new under the sun.”

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Nov 17Liked by Andrew Smith

This is so topical right now, me and my girlfriends were all just talking over drinks about how instead of listening to our gut, we will second guess ourselves or need to talk it to death until we’ve talked ourselves out of something and it’s so blurred together we don’t know if it’s our intuition or past trauma clouding our judgment.

Balance really is such a fragile delicate dance. Leaning just a bit too much to either side can send you over into dangerous territory.

That’s why I like to remind myself that the universe is trying to kill me, and better to just do most things and wish I hadn’t then, refusing to live and wishing I had. I also might be too courageous or too stupid for my own good. 🤷🏻‍♀️

Thanks for this article, Andrew! It’s given me much to think about today at open mat where I will be focused on half guard, pressure passing and back steps 🤪. Hopefully I know more than I think I do, but I doubt it. 🙂

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The hidden things you know about jiu jitsu really do add up over time!

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